Sunday, January 07, 2007

Six mega-trends that define India's future.

TN Ninan has written an excellent article in Business Standard about the Six mega-trends that define India's future.

Read it here

MEGA-TREND #1 is the acquiring of scale
telecom market was 5 million connections 15 years ago; now it is over 180
million, and the fastest growing in the world. The fourth-largest phone company
in India is now being valued at $20 billion.

On a visit to India some years ago, the chairman of General Electric
(Jeff Immelt) said that whenever his company had bet on the Indian market, it
had failed them; but whenever they had bet on the Indian people (Indian skills,
that is), the bet had paid off. But by his last visit to Delhi, Immelt had
changed his view: now the market is working too.

MEGA-TREND #2 is the spread of connectivity and

MEGA-TREND #3 is the growth of the middle class --
talked about and anticipated for 20 years, but finally acquiring true scale. In
2001-02, there were 61 million Indians belonging to families that earned more
than Rs 2 lakh (Rs 200,000) a year; by last year (2005-06), that number had
crossed 100 million.

MEGA-TREND #4 has to do with the growing problems of
There is the environment: the increasing pollution of air
(all those additional cars), the dropping of the groundwater table, and the
failure to renew resources (like forests).

MEGA-TREND #5 has to do with India's increasing openness to
the world.

The number of US visas issued in India doubled in 2006, to over 800,000 --
more than in any other country, barring Mexico. More Indian students are
studying in other countries than those of any other nationality, barring perhaps
China. Neither of these was remotely true 15 years ago.

MEGA-TREND #6 the continuing dominance of

Something like half of India is under 25, and it will remain that way for
some time. This is usually spun around into the economic fact that a higher
percentage of people will be in the working age till the mid-twenty-first
century, but that is only one facet.


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